Why Media Influence Is A Smarter Alternative To Attribution Models

Media Influence

In today’s marketing landscape, attribution models are commonly used to track which channels drive consumer purchases. These models focus on clicks, conversions, and digital interactions to allocate media spending. However, whether it's first-touch attribution (crediting the first interaction) or last-touch attribution (focusing on the final step), these models are flawed. First-touch attribution ignores the critical influence of later touchpoints, while last-touch attribution discounts the entire journey leading to the purchase. Even multi-touch attribution, which distributes credit across touchpoints, often assigns arbitrary value, failing to reveal which interactions matter most.

A better approach comes from the concept of media influence, which was first explored in Northwestern University Medill School professors Drs. Don Schultz and Martin Block's book, Media Generations (2009). This method, backed by data updated annually from Prosper Insights & Analytics’ Media Behaviors & Influence Survey, provides a comprehensive look at 17,000 adults aged 18+ to determine which media types influence purchasing decisions across several key categories. Unlike attribution, media influence focuses on the long-term effects of media exposure and how consumers build trust over time—often influencing a purchase even when there’s no immediate conversion.

In my interview with Dr. Block in 2015 he stated that “Influence allows a marketer to directly compare seemingly different categories, such as TV, coupons and shopper loyalty cards. …Influence of external stimuli on the human mind is now being systematically studied and related to other concepts such as perception, memory and decision making. There is now considerable justification to use influence as a marketing media and promotional variable.”

Limitations of Attribution Models

Attribution models, while useful for short-term tracking, often miss the broader context of how media shapes consumer behavior. Key limitations include:

Media Influence: A More Effective Alternative

Schultz and Block’s research emphasizes how media influence offers a more realistic view of consumer behavior, moving away from the myopic focus on digital clicks. It focuses on how consistent media exposure builds trust over time, leading to a purchase decision.

Dr. Block, now Professor Emeritus, Northwestern University, Retail Analytics Council continues to highlight the importance of this approach: “When you ask consumers directly which media influences their purchase decisions, you gain a clear and factual understanding of what truly drives behavior. Influence, not just attribution, provides deeper insights into the consumer journey.” Media that builds long-term trust is just as valuable, if not more so, than channels that drive immediate conversions. Brands should focus on fostering relationships through trusted media outlets to drive sustained loyalty and future purchases.

1. Long-Term Media Habits

Consumers build relationships with media outlets they trust over time. For example, a car buyer may follow reviews for months before making a decision. The final click is simply the culmination of this long-term media engagement. Marketers should allocate resources to media outlets that shape consistent, long-term consumer habits rather than focusing only on immediate conversions.

2. Generational Preferences

Different generations consume media differently. Older consumers tend to rely on traditional media like TV or print, while younger consumers favor digital platforms such as social media or influencers. Media allocation should be aligned with generational media preferences. While younger consumers may respond to influencer campaigns or podcasts, older audiences may be more influenced by TV or print ads.

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3. Building Trust Over Time

Many purchase decisions are influenced by years of media exposure. While a single ad may trigger a final purchase, the trust leading up to that decision has been built through consistent interactions with trusted media. Marketers should invest in media that fosters long-term trust, focusing on media channels that create a lasting relationship with consumers.

4. Gift-Giving and Multi-Person Purchases

Attribution models fail to capture the complexity of multi-person purchasing decisions, such as gift-giving, where the preferences of the end user (the recipient) might drive the purchase. By asking consumers directly about their media habits, marketers can better allocate resources to the media that truly influences the decision-maker and end user, even if attribution models can’t track this influence.

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Combining Media Influence with Attribution

While media influence provides a more comprehensive view of consumer behavior, attribution models can still offer valuable short-term feedback. A combination of both approaches helps brands allocate media more strategically:

Tim Marshall, Director of the Digital Marketing Center at Baldwin Wallace University states. “I always encourage digital markers to remember that they're targeting people not just devices, and they should fully understand their customers. I agree with blending attribution models with other methods.”

Conclusion: A New Approach to Media Allocation

By shifting from a short-term, click-focused view to a media influence-based approach, marketers can better align media spending with how consumers truly make decisions. Understanding long-term trust, generational preferences, and the non-linear nature of consumer journeys allows brands to create more strategic, impactful media campaigns.

Incorporating media influence with attribution enables marketers to not only achieve short-term success but also build the trust and relationships needed for long-term growth. Dr. Block states, “Focusing on media influence helps brands make better decisions about where to spend their media dollars, ensuring they invest in channels that actually drive consumer behavior.”

In today’s environment, where consumer trust is more important than ever, using media influence to guide media allocation is the smarter, more innovative path.

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