Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight

Democrats could take control of state governments in Arizona and New Hampshire.

The race is uncertain, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be close.

538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.

The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.

With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.

Our final deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

How this year's polling compares with other recent elections.

Most would restore pre-Dobbs protections, but some advocates want to go further.

Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.

Our sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.

Introducing 538's forecast for the 2024 U.S. Senate elections.

Here's everything that goes into this year's model.

Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.

The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.

The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.

No matter what polls you look at, the 2024 election is super close.

Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.

States are voting on school choice and more in 2024.

538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.

The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.

538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.

Even if they don't change voters' minds, they could dampen turnout.

Our fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

Paid leave and minimum wage policies have passed by ballot initiative before.

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.

The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.

538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.

The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.

The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.

The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.

UPDATED Nov. 3, 2024, at 7:03 PM

We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.

LAST UPDATED Nov. 1

Now that we are in the closing days of the 2024 presidential race, pollsters have started releasing their final readings of the campaign. They have mostly been a mixed bag. On Friday, Marist College released their highly-anticipated final polls across the Midwestern states, finding Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 3 points in Michigan, 2 points in Pennsylvania and 2 points in Wisconsin. That would be good news for Harris if those were the only polls released this week, but they weren’t: An Echelon Insights survey found Trump up 5 points in the Keystone State, and CNN/SSRS has the former president up by 1 in Georgia. In aggregate, this has been enough to push our model modestly back in Harris’s direction. Currently, our forecast gives Trump a XXX out of 100 chance of winning the election, and gives Harris a XXX out of 100 chance.

Still, the closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at 538 recently: A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close. All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently “losing”in each. While the polls have identified a close race, our model shows what you should expect if those polls are off.

538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

—G. Elliott Morris

The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.

We forecast the popular vote only for candidates polling at 5 percent or higher nationally, polling at 10 percent or higher in at least one state or who are on the ballot in almost every state. Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal, only Harris and Trump meet these criteria, so we are effectively forecasting the two-way popular vote between Democrats and Republicans.

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.

Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.

A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.

Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.

This graph shows the national popular vote margin and Electoral College margin in every model simulation. It shows you how often a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for Election Day.

The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of national polls.

The national polling average adjusted for results of state polls and the effects of party conventions.

The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.

Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)

The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.

Forecast model

G. Elliott Morris

Design

Katie Marriner

Amina Brown

Aaron Bycoffe

Development

Aaron Bycoffe

Katie Marriner

Amina Brown

Data and research

Mary Radcliffe

Cooper Burton

Irena Li

Quantitative editing

Holly Fuong

Content editing

Nathaniel Rakich

Copy editing

Alex Kimball

Cooper Burton

Irena Li

Illustration

Joey Ellis

Katie Marriner

Amina Brown

Project management

Nathaniel Rakich

How this works

Presidential methodology

Senate methodology

House methodology

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Polls and model output